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MyFace Hogwash

Posted by Timothy Sykes on Thu 25th of Oct, 2007 05:01:57 PM

Today’s most popular story was Microsoft investing $240 million for a 1.6% stake in Facebook. Everyone’s gettin’ all crazy about this since the deal values Facebook at $15 billion. This is a great big important story blah blah blah. Needless to say, I’ve gotten too many emails asking what I think of this deal.

My answer: I don’t care!

This is just the latest case of the media brainwashing you to believe that this kind of deal actually matters to you. Sure, if you’re invested in Microsoft, bravo, this is a big win for them and you as an investor. If you’re an internet startup, great, now you know how successful you can become in 4 years. If you’re a TV network or media outlet, beautiful, you’ll be able to discuss this one for a long time, viewers will tune in and the ad dollars will pile up. But for individual investors and the majority of other people who don’t want to sit around investing for the longterm, it’s overwhelmingly meaningless. Kinda like that Google/YouTube deal way back when.

I know I’m sounding a little crazy so what should you focus on instead, hmmm, let’s see — how about Terra Nostra Resources Corporation (OTCBB: TNRO) down trending perfectly after a staggering runup that was caused by a whole lot of hype and promotion (I, alone, received over a dozen faxes and emails hyping this stock) and an incredible earnings report . While the earnings look great on the whole, this is an OTCBB so be cautious. Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to know how take advantage of a chart like this? (my DVD, cough, cough).

tnro.png

Sure, I know what you’re thinking–this only a $200 million company–smaller than the 1.6% stake Microsoft took in Facebook!–why should I care? And it’s a Penny Stock, ewwwwwwwwwwww!

Well, it’s just that this kind of play is a whole lot more predictable and if you’re gonna play the stock market, you should focus on these kinds of plays rather than huge deals and stocks that everyone and their mother are talking about. We’re here to make money int he stock market, not try to guess the future potential and valuation of internet leaders, right?

And, no, I didn’t take advantage of this play either–the process of closing a hedge fund down and transferring assets to personal accounts sucks and takes much longer than you think!

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  • Vanilla
    I know this may be off topic but would anyone mind to lend their opinion: Im still short on SMSI, 590 shares @ 6.30 average. It closed down 3.26% @ 6.53 andAfter Hours: 6.41 -0.12 (-1.81%). Obviously I have it for the weekend, but should I not take any further losses and go ahead and get out or not? Tim seems to have thought that this company should go right back to a down slope as it has for months (sorry if i completely misunderstood you).

    P.S. for a question like this where would you have liked me to post (Ive posted in forums but it feels like stocks mentioned more than a week ago in alerts are dead/not discussed anymore)?
  • nah only takes me 30 min usually, but i'm uptown, studio is downtown, stopped for a bite (to make sure i wouldnt sell before the close) and on top of that traffic was bad today

    moates, it doesnt matter the exact stuff, just need a few grand to start

    no timbucks on here, its an administrative mess, maybe we'll talk with IDAE management and get their social networking gift cards! :)
  • TomT
    thx PC..

    Tim.. how can I watch last week livestock? and where is our timbuck on here... lol
  • JeffMoates
    Tim, I was watching a re-run of Livestock when someone asked 'what's the minimum account size you would suggest?' Interesting that you said '...a few hundred dollars isn't going to go anywhere' and '...$3500 is my suggestion' (paraphrasing). Do you recall a banter we had a while back about account sizes and I thought one guy that was out there with only a $1000 was stupid for not saving more? I just thought I would ask what changed your mind about having a certain amount to start with? Because I remember someone being very adamant about any amount being fine.
  • PCola
    Tim, does it take you that long to get to/from the studio, or were you doing otehr stuff in the mean time?

    Oh and by the way, did your chickie ever find a roomate. I know a guy who may be looking for a roomate, his name is A-Rod. :P He can probably pay her half of the rent too...
  • Brent Lear
    thank you Tim. I will do the double check... thanks again. BTW in IDAE at 2.34.
  • PCola
    Tom, think of it this way, if you had doubled down at 2.31 your average would be about 2.36, which is basically breakeven at this point. Would it be worth risking twice as much as you were comfortable riskign in the first place, just to basically eliminate what is currently a $60 loss? Averaging down when it's only dropped 4% from your buy is a surefire way to get in a hole quickly if you do it often. Imagine if you averaged down and then it dropped to $2 and you had no money left to average down again. You'd be pretty uspet. But if it gets to $2 and you average down for the first time then, your average is down to 2.20.
  • TomT
    I should have avg back down for IDAE... still have 1200 @ 2.41.. ouch
  • just got back from studio, re-added your email brent...but always check website in case u miss anything...IDAE closed very strongly, I'm up $300 or so on it...gonna have a nice long post this weekend with all my research!
  • PCola
    SUF still in play for a short on Monday, IMO. Ended the day at 2.65, HOD and just below yesterday's close.
  • GT4NE1
    I'm still in on IDAE 500 @ avg. of $2.31
  • PCola
    Holding 5000 IDAE from 2.29 til Monday at least
  • kelvin
    sold IDAE yet ??
  • bigjimstradingpost
    Tim said he won't accept two email addresses. The alerts go to your email address associated with your PayPal account...He's only one man without a secretary taking care of his admin crap...
  • Brent Lear
    checked
  • kelvin
    check your junk box ..
  • Brent Lear
    just checked all my emails and i didn't receive TimAlerts this morning. I hope they are going to go to pipn20...
  • PCola
    SUF trying to get all the way back... LOD of 2.26, now at 2.55. Let's see a nice spike into the close to short into...
  • PCola
    Where the hell is everyone? Early weekend?
  • bigjimstradingpost
    Nice bounce off the ever shrinking bottom on DTG.
    Not really a trade...but I'm grabbing some for the longer term...look at the damn chart... $2.55...bargain basement... as long as she doesn't go to zero that is. JIM
  • beinggreat
    just bought 300 shares @ $2.35 for the weekend
  • evan2024
    Great show, Tim. Thanks for your hard work.
  • Goose
    thanks...seems like a really efficient program..TOS kinda slow on my computer to load
  • skyhighdream
    thanks PCola
  • PCola
    No limit sky. Only margin call would force you to sell.
  • skyhighdream
    Hi one simple question.........If I have shorted shares on Thursday by what day I have to buy it back?
  • evan2024
    Yeah, Goose, it is power etrade but he uses think or swim to trade.
  • MattH
    I think power etrade plus or something like that.
  • Goose
    what software is that right now timmy is using on livestock?
  • Reaper
    ergh, can't connect to chat room for Livestock.
  • Brent Lear
    k, keep me updated, please.
  • Getshorty
    Not a single trade in IDAE, incredible how this things dry up
  • Getshorty
    VVUS looks like a first down day, but so did wednesday, 1 min chart looks messy, now close to the middle of the intraday range, would wait and see on this one.
  • Getshorty
    GIGM on an intraday descending triangle trying to break the 11.50 support, it's trying hard ladies and gentlemen. Lets sit back and let gravity do its job ....
  • Brent Lear
    thx. getshorty. Thoughts on VVUS?
  • Getshorty
    I was on my way to work when the alert was sent, don't see any volume in the IDAE stock now, will wait until it starts moving
  • seattle_guy
    I am in at 2.28. Hope to see a 50c spike up.
  • Getshorty
    Brent don't trust to much the amount of buyers sellers you see on level 2, is like playing poker, some people bluff and put an order and cancel it when execution gets close. Also some don't put the order until the moment they want it executed.
    It's a bluffing game
  • skyhighdream
    hi I m in at 2.3
  • Getshorty
    GIGM GOING DOWN BABY !!!!
  • Brent Lear
    when one looks at level 2 and there is a whole bunch more sellers, at whatever price, compared to buyers, at whatever price, what does that mean? Sellers to buyers: 60k share sellers vs 8k share buyers.
  • PCola
    What do you mean be more specific? If he buys he says "Bought" if he shorts he says "shorted".
  • Brent Lear
    tim, did i miss the email alert or did you send it to the email with paypal? wanted it to go to pipn20.
  • ghozt2008
    I bought 3,000 shares at 2.18 and sold for 2.35. Made $510.00 before lunch. Thanks Tim.

    P.S. Please be "more" specific with the early email alerts when recommending to BUY stocks. I dont' yet have a margin account that allows me to short sell stock.
  • Brent Lear
    VVUS,, any thoughts?
  • lamecoder
    Yes, if I put a 1% stop loss on every stock that I bought you would be exactly right.
  • PCola
    lamecoder, you basically set a 1% stoploss as soon as you bought. That's ridiculous. if you bail every time a stock makes one downtick, you will never make any money. It's one thing to be conservative and safe, but why even buy a stock if you worry about a short term 1% price drop?
  • lamecoder
    I was in at 2.34 and cut my losses at 2.31.
  • TomT
    wow.. should i buy more to avg down on IDAE.. its down to 2.31
  • das317
    Tim--what do you recommend when someone has no daytrading capabilites..beside set up a new account. I get nervous buying into an illiquid company like this and then it starts moving down after I buy or moves up and I want to sell and can't until the next day. With no day trades available, would you stay out? That's how I got F'd by FRE yesterday..would have sold for a gain, but couldn't.
  • dude75
    I'm in for 250 @ 2.34 with my $ leftover at Scottrade.
  • uhhhh soo illiquid.. this thing went from 1.40 to 2.20 last breakout, so i guess i want $3...lets see how it acts
  • GT4NE1
    I'm in for 300 @ 2.34
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